The notion that higher mortgage rates would freeze the housing market in Wilmington, North Carolina, is being disproven by hard data: the median single-family home price has now crossed the $500,000 threshold, and buyers in the crucial middle range haven’t walked away. According to closed-sale figures from the North Carolina Regional MLS, the median sale price in New Hanover County hit $500,000 in 2026, a 3.1% increase from $485,000 during the same period last year. But the real headline is what’s happening in the market’s engine room—homes priced between $300,000 and $600,000.
That middle segment, which accounts for more than half of all local sales, saw buyers closing deals at nearly the same pace as 2025, even as the average 30-year mortgage rate jumped from 6.22% to 7.18%. From January 1 through November 12, 2,732 single-family homes sold in New Hanover County, compared with 2,756 during the same stretch of 2025—a decline of less than 1%. In the $300,000 to $600,000 range, 1,520 homes changed hands, versus 1,533 a year earlier. The median price in that bracket rose 1.7%, from $417,800 to $425,000, and the typical home sold for roughly 98% of its original asking price in both years.
Sales of homes between $300k and $600k barely slowed in 2026 even as mortgage rates rose about a full point, and fall buyers are finding more room to negotiate.
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That resilience came despite significantly higher borrowing costs. Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey, as reported by the Associated Press, placed the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% in early November, up from 6.22% a year earlier. Rates climbed through much of 2026, peaking near 7.4% in early October before easing for three consecutive weeks. For a buyer putting 10% down on the median-priced middle-market home, the estimated monthly principal and interest jumped $283—from about $2,308 to $2,591—as higher rates combined with slightly elevated prices.
“The families I work with didn’t stop buying this year. They just got more careful,” said Paula Vargas, a Wilmington Realtor® brokered by Real Broker LLC. “They’re running the numbers harder, asking more questions about the monthly payment, and negotiating more. The demand to live here hasn’t gone anywhere.”
The composition of middle-market buyers also shifted noticeably. Buyers using FHA or VA loans accounted for 16.8% of sales between $300,000 and $600,000 this year, up from 14.3% in 2025. Meanwhile, cash buyers in that range fell from 19.6% to 17.1%. That shift means a larger share of the middle market is now being sustained by households that depend on financing—including first-time buyers, veterans, and military families.
Inventory remains tightest precisely where most local families are shopping. As of November 12, 390 single-family homes were listed between $300,000 and $600,000, representing roughly 2.5 months of supply based on the pace of sales from May through October. That is tighter than any other price range in the county. By contrast, homes listed above $2 million had about 5.9 months of supply. Yet even with tight inventory, sellers in the middle market are adjusting their expectations: 56% of active listings between $300,000 and $600,000 have reduced their price at least once, typically by about 4%. Homes in that range are also taking longer to sell as the season turns. Median days on market fell to 12 to 13 days in April and May, then rose to roughly 27 to 37 days in September, October, and early November.
“Fall and winter are when middle-market buyers have the most leverage in Wilmington,” Vargas said. “Sellers who are still on the market in November are usually motivated, and more than half of them have already cut their price. Buyers can often ask for things in December that they couldn’t get in April.”
The luxury segment of the market grew at a much faster clip. Sales of $1 million or more rose 24%, from 301 to 374, and sales of $2 million or more climbed from 71 to 93. Total sales volume reached $1.91 billion, up from $1.82 billion. That luxury growth accounts for part of the overall median’s rise. Meanwhile, sales under $400,000 fell 8.6%, from 927 to 847—a clear signal that fewer entry-level homes are coming to market.
Wilmington’s appeal has been building for years. The city was named one of Livability’s Top 100 Best Places to Live in the U.S. in 2025. In 2026, it ranked No. 7 on Southern Living’s list of the South’s Best Cities, and Travel + Leisure named Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach the third-best beach towns to live in year-round. RentCafe’s 2026 Best Cities for Renters report ranked Wilmington fourth in the nation and first for job growth, and ConsumerAffairs named it the best city in the country for a fresh start.
National forecasts for 2027 diverge on where rates are headed, but they agree on one thing: home prices are unlikely to fall. Fannie Mae’s October forecast expects the 30-year rate to average 7.5% through 2027, with national home price growth slowing to 0.6%, according to Florida Realtors. Goldman Sachs Research, by contrast, expects rates to ease to about 6.4% by the end of 2027 and national prices to rise about 0.8%, according to Mortgage Professional America.
“Nobody can promise where rates will go next year, and I’m honest with my clients about that,” Vargas said. “What I can tell them is that waiting for Wilmington prices to drop hasn’t paid off, and the national forecasts don’t expect that to change in 2027. If the monthly payment works for your family today, you’re building equity in a place people keep wanting to move to.”
Figures in this release cover single-family homes in New Hanover County that closed between January 1 and November 12 of each year, from the North Carolina Regional MLS. MLS data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The middle market is defined as homes selling between $300,000 and $600,000. Months of supply equals active listings divided by average monthly closed sales from May through October 2026. Mortgage rates are from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey as reported by the Associated Press, and the monthly payment estimate assumes a 30-year fixed loan with 10% down, excluding taxes and insurance.
About Paula Vargas
Paula Vargas is a bilingual (English/Spanish) Wilmington, NC Realtor® brokered by Real Broker LLC, specializing in first-time buyers, new construction and investment properties. A Cape Fear Real Producers Top 300 High-Producer and 40 Under 40 honoree, she appeared on HGTV’s Battle on the Beach.
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