New data from Armstrong & Associates shows the global third-party logistics market has completed a full cycle, settling back to pre-pandemic outsourcing levels after a freight-rate-driven surge.
BROOKFIELD, WI, UNITED STATES, October 12, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — The newly released annual report from Armstrong & Associates, Inc. (A&A), titled Retraced: Global and Regional Logistics Costs, Third-Party Logistics Market Trends and Outlook, and Top 3PL Rankings, tracks global 3PL revenue at $1,300.6 billion for 2025. That figure represents a 10.04% share of the $12,957 billion in worldwide logistics costs, essentially matching the industry’s 2019 level. Looking ahead, the firm forecasts global 3PL revenue to expand by 10.1% in 2026E, with Transportation Management leading the charge.
A&A, an internationally recognized authority in Third-Party Logistics (3PL) market research, consulting, and M&A advisory services, has released its comprehensive annual analysis covering global and regional logistics expenditures, 3PL revenues, and updated rankings for the Top 50 Global 3PLs, Top 25 Global Freight Forwarders, and Top 25 Global Warehousing 3PLs.
According to the firm’s findings, global 3PL gross revenue climbed 5.3% to $1,300.6 billion in 2025, while overall logistics costs rose 5.4% to $12,957 billion. This places 3PL penetration of total logistics spending at 10.04%, just 0.01% above the pre-pandemic reading of 10.03% recorded in 2019 and considerably lower than the 12.93% peak hit in 2022. A&A’s research suggests the sharp rise in penetration between 2020 and 2022 was largely a product of extraordinary freight rate inflation rather than a permanent structural shift toward outsourcing. The company projects global 3PL revenue to increase 10.1% to $1,431.6 billion in 2026E and a further 6.9% to $1,529.7 billion in 2027E, with penetration rates climbing to 10.34% and 10.57%, respectively.
Transportation Management (TM)—a category that A&A uses globally to combine Domestic Transportation Management (DTM) and Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC)—is positioned as the fastest-growing segment, with an 11.8% rise forecast for 2026E and a projected 49.6% share of the global 3PL market by 2027E. Record diesel prices provide an additional boost: fuel surcharges indexed to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly price feed directly into gross TM revenue, lifting DTM and DCC figures even when freight volumes hold steady. International Transportation Management (ITM) presents a picture of reversion rather than decline. Its share of global 3PL revenue topped out at 34.3% in 2022, dropped to 23.5% in 2023, and even the 24.5% estimate for 2027E remains under its 2016 share of 29.2%. Value-Added Warehousing and Distribution (VAWD) has emerged as the market’s steadiest performer, overtaking ITM revenue in 2023 and forecast to grow 8.4% in 2026E, fueled by ongoing e-commerce fulfillment expansion and rising demand for industrial space tied to data center and Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
“What stands out in 2025 is the round trip,” said Evan Armstrong, CEO of Armstrong & Associates. “3PL penetration rose to nearly 13% during the pandemic-era freight-rate spike and has now settled back to about 10%, right where it was in 2019. That tells us the surge was driven by rates, not a lasting shift in outsourcing. From this normalized base, the growth ahead is more durable. Transportation management is benefiting from firming rates and fuel surcharges, value-added warehousing and distribution continues to gain from e-commerce fulfillment and data center demand, and fast-growing, under-outsourced markets such as India and ASEAN still have a long runway.”
Key Findings from the Report
Global 3PL revenue reached $1,300.6 billion in 2025, up 5.3% year over year, against $12,957 billion in global logistics costs, a 10.04% penetration rate.
Transportation Management (TM) is forecast to grow 11.8% in 2026E, the fastest of the three segments, and to reach 49.6% of the global 3PL market by 2027E. Record diesel prices are adding fuel surcharge revenue on top of the firming rate environment.
International Transportation Management (ITM) reached $329.0 billion in 2025 but is forecast to grow at a 4.2% CAGR from 2026E to 2027E, the slowest of the three segments, as tariff realignment, the phase-out of de minimis treatment, and Red Sea disruption reshape trade lanes.
Value-Added Warehousing and Distribution (VAWD) reached $332.5 billion in 2025, having surpassed ITM in 2023, and is forecast to grow 8.4% in 2026E on e-commerce fulfillment and data center and AI-related demand for industrial space.
Asia Pacific led all regions with $487.5 billion in 3PL revenue in 2025, ahead of North America ($376.5 billion) and Europe ($229.7 billion). The United States and Greater China alone account for 48.3% of global 3PL revenue, making U.S.-China tariff policy a central influence on the industry.
India combines the fastest forecast 3PL revenue growth, a 12.8% CAGR from 2026E to 2027E, with the lowest outsourcing rate among key markets at 7.04%, compared with 12.71% in the United States.
A&A’s Top 50 Global 3PLs generated $602.0 billion in 2025, representing 46.3% of the global market. DSV moved to second place behind Amazon after closing its acquisition of DB Schenker on April 30, 2025, and GXO Logistics entered the global top 10.
In freight forwarding, DSV absorbed four separate members of A&A’s 2010 Top 25 Global Freight Forwarders, and five Chinese providers now rank in the top 25. A&A’s Top 25 Global Warehousing 3PLs operate a combined 2,869 million square feet, led by Amazon at 426 million square feet.
The full report is available as a standard download through A&A’s Expert Information Service (E.I.S.).
ABOUT ARMSTRONG & ASSOCIATES, INC.
Armstrong & Associates, Inc. (A&A), founded in 1980, is a leader in Third-Party Logistics (3PL) market research, consulting, and M&A advisory services. A&A has become an internationally recognized key resource for information and consulting in the 3PL market.
A&A’s mission is to possess leading proprietary knowledge in supply chain management and market research that is not available anywhere else. Our ongoing commitment to this mission is demonstrated by the frequent citations of A&A’s 3PL market research in media articles, publications, and the securities filings of publicly traded 3PL companies. Additionally, A&A’s email newsletter currently has over 88,000 subscribers worldwide.
A&A’s market research enhances its consulting services by providing continuously updated data for analysis. Leveraging its extensive knowledge of the third-party logistics (3PL) market and the operations of top 3PL providers, A&A has delivered strategic planning consulting to more than 50 3PL companies. Additionally, it has supported 26 completed investment transactions and offered advice to numerous organizations seeking to benchmark their current 3PL operations or outsource logistics functions.
Evan Armstrong
Armstrong & Associates, Inc.
+1 414-545-3838
Vedrana@3plogistics.com
Why it matters
The return of 3PL penetration to pre-pandemic levels signals that the industry’s recent growth spurt was an inflation artifact, not a permanent shift—yet the forecast for durable expansion ahead, particularly in transportation management and warehousing, points to a more stable and strategic phase for logistics outsourcing. With the U.S. and China alone driving nearly half of global 3PL revenue, tariff policy will remain the single most influential variable shaping the sector’s trajectory.
